Orbital compute is not one machine. It is a stack of proposed layers, a thermal problem, and a set of filings. This sitting cites that stack. It does not claim a satellite, a terawatt, or Terafab.
Space is cold. Vacuum is a poor coolant. There is no convection. Heat leaves only by radiation. Power rejected scales with radiator area and the fourth power of temperature.
A one-megawatt orbital box needs on the order of a hockey-rink of radiator at modest chip temperatures (World Economic Forum / Starcloud paper, 2026). The ISS rejects about 70 kW with tonnes of radiator. Scale that to a megawatt and the radiators can outweigh the GPUs. Run chips hotter: smaller area, worse leakage and errors. That is the trade. “Space is free cooling” is not an architecture.
Also binding: total-dose and single-event radiation; eclipse versus sun-synchronous power; optical downlink as a pipe, not a brain; servicing; debris; spectrum. Launch mass dominates cost until cadence collapses it. Europe’s ASCEND study: the climate ledger only begins to work if launch is about ten times cleaner.
| Item | What it is | What it is not |
|---|---|---|
| Starcloud-1 | First H100 class GPU flown (Nov 2025) | A data centre |
| Starcloud FCC | Up to 88,000 compute satellites proposed | Authority to occupy the south |
| SpaceX FCC | Up to 1,000,000 orbital data-centre satellites proposed (Jan 2026) | A southern node |
| Davos 2026 claim | Lowest-cost AI in space in two to three years | A completed thermal design |
| NSPM-17 (20 Aug 2026) | 1,000 US launches and reentries a year by 2030 | Australian cadence |
| Terafab / D3 (public) | Earth plant for orbital and vehicle silicon | Pilbara. Not this sitting |
Earth data centres are hitting power, water and permits. Orbit sells continuous solar and no cooling towers. The integrated United States play is silicon, launch, model, and network in one stack. That may or may not close. Either way, tokens in LEO do not replace a brain that still works when the link is twenty minutes or gone.
Iowa is postage. A million satellites on a form are not sovereignty. If the stack flies, the industrial question for this continent is unchanged: who catches, who refurbs, who fuels, and whose Country the concrete sits on.
Sources: IEEE Spectrum (2026); World Economic Forum (cooling, Jun 2026); FCC filings as reported (SpaceX, Starcloud, 2026); White House NSPM-17 (20 Aug 2026); ESA Space Cloud / ASCEND reporting. We cite. We do not wear.
Gold is the grid. The dark is still Country.